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| Tulip Mania! |
Prior to Greece receiving its second bailout, for instance,
political leaders said "(w)e must accept the terms of this bailout,
regardless of the cost to Greece, or we risk being kicked out
the euro!"
This makes me
wonder what it is about remaining in the euro that national leaders find so
crucial, even if it’s not in the economic best interests of their citizens. This
is especially pertinent because Spain
finds itself in exactly the same boat at present. It would arguably be easier
for Spain to abandon the euro and
readopt the peseta, rather than attempt the excruciating internal devaluation
it is now embarking upon.
So why not do it? I have a couple of
ideas:
1. It would violate
the post-war consensus.
Since World War II, the nations of Europe have
agreed to ever-greater integration, to ensure that the same calamities of
1939-45 never occur again. So when Europe faces
a problem, More Europe is the basic principle upon which leaders act. To
violate that would be to throw away more than six decades of cooperation (of
course, Britain is the exception to the
rule).
2. It is politically
impossible.
During the
negotiations for the second Greek bailout, I had the impression that Greek
leaders didn't in the least like what they were being asked to do to their
country, but that international political pressure obliged them.
At one point,
Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy flew into Athens to negotiate with
bondholders to make them accept losses on their bonds. How’s that for an
incentive?
Of course, for me at
least, historical and political obligations do not make square pegs fit into
round holes. To the extent that national leaders continue to argue that euro
membership is in their best interests, at almost whatever cost, I consider that a betrayal of the peoples of Europe.
What do you think? Should
Europe continue with the euro project? Or is it
time to admit the experiment has failed and recommission individual national
currencies?
Peter Lavelle
at foreign exchange specialists
(Guest blogs do not necessarily reflect the views of doshebu.)


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